The Hot Take:
Nearly a decade ago, the Carolina Panthers were seen as the next dynasty franchise, led by MVP Cam Newton and a defense that was a force to be reckoned with. It appears my Broncos quickly put a stop to that. What was once a top-tier franchise quickly became blue-collar, faster than you can say "Super Bowl 50." So how can a team that was selling home game tickets for the premium price of $3 turn things around and make the playoffs? Let me show you a path.
Recap of last year:
The Carolina Panthers last year displayed one of the worst seasons over the last few years finishing with a record of 2-17. This was due to a rare combination of a bad defense and an even worse offense. They allowed 24.5 points per game (29th in the NFL), gave up 2.9 touchdowns per game (29th), and had a sack percentage of just 5.31% (31st). This defense offered little to no positive outlooks. Now, to the offensive recap. Spoiler: it was even worse. The Panthers averaged just 13.9 points per game (31st), 265.3 yards per game (32nd), and 1.4 touchdowns per game (32nd) [stats from teamrankings.com]. A major factor in their offensive struggles was their offensive line, ranking 30th in the league for sacks allowed, with the quarterback being sacked on 9.98% of plays. So, how can a team that finished 2-17, with a 'Young' unproven QB and the worst statistical offense and defense in the NFL, turn things around to make the playoffs? Allow me to explain.
Changes in the offseason (Offense):
Let’s start with the improved offensive line. As Jim Harbaugh once said, “I know the question is going to come up, 'What about a weapon?' Offensive linemen, we look at as weapons.” The Panthers have significantly bolstered one of their most dismal position groups by signing guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to extensive contracts. This move aims to strengthen the line and support former #1 overall pick Bryce Young. This decision was led by new General Manager Dan Morgan and new head coach Dave “QB Reviver” Canales. Improving the protection for Bryce Young was a major priority for these two new additions to the Panther’s organization. Additionally, they made significant upgrades to the wide receiver corps. Last year, the Carolina panthers rolled out the illustrious squad of Adam Thielen, Terrance Marshall, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette… Yeah, I know.
So, what happens when you combine a bottom-three offensive line with the worst pass catching corp in the NFL? You end up with a former Heisman winner that the world now doubts. I am not sure that Patrick Mahomes could’ve succeeded in this environment. While I’m not a huge believer in Bryce Young, I have my quarrels with short QBs - I do think we haven’t given him a fair shot, not yet at least. After bolstering the O-Line and revamping the WR corps with the additions of Diontae Johnson, first-round pick Xavier Legette, and making Adam Thielen the WR3 on this offense, there are signs of hope for an offensive turnaround.
I am not sure what is more impactful, the loss of Frank Reich or the addition of Dave Canales, and I am a HUGE fan of Dave Canales. Replacing Reich with Canales might be the Panthers' biggest offseason upgrade. Let me remind you of the impact that Canales has made in his career. Canales was the QB coach for Seattle two years ago revitalizing the career of ‘written off’ Geno Smith, who earned Comeback Player of the Year in 2022. Through his tenured success with Seattle, he got promoted to Offensive Coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he propelled Baker Mayfield into a player everyone thought he wasn’t anymore (finishing 3rd in the comeback player award in 2023). See Below for the side-by side comparison of before and after acquiring Dave Canales:
The improvement for Bryce Young is coming, it is inevitable.
Changes in the offseason (Defense):
It's hard to say if the defense actually improved over the offseason, but maybe the best way to boost a defense is by having an offense that can keep them off the field and provide good field position. Also, understand that the Defensive Coordinator in Ejiro Evero is a superstar in the making. Jared Dubin of CBS Sports had this to say about the Carolina Defense: “…look at the talent on hand (Derrick Brown up front, Jaycee Horn and Dane Jackson at corner, Jordan Fuller, Xavier Woods, and Nick Scott at safety, Jadeveon Clowney and in the mix to rush the passer, etc) is perhaps better than I thought at first glance, and defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is a stud.” Sure, losing Brian Burns will definitely sting, but I think the Panthers' pass rush is much better than it was in 2023. They’ve made some key improvements that should help fill the gap. There are still some worries about the secondary, especially at cornerback, but I’m confident Evero can handle it. He did a great job as the defensive coordinator for the Broncos in 2022, so I believe he can get the defense where it needs to be in order to be competitive.
The Schedule:
Maybe the most important part of this hot take: the schedule. With a consistently ranked top 10 easiest schedule in 2024, the Carolina Panthers face a slate of winnable games against:
· Saints (twice)
· Chargers
· Raiders
· Commanders
· Broncos
· Giants
· Buccaneers (twice)
· Cardinals
Now, I’m not saying the Panthers will win all of those games, but they can certainly put up a fight and maybe squeak out a few more wins against tougher teams. They play the Bengals early in the season when they always start slow and the Eagles at the end of the season when they tend to taper off. The Packers made the NFC wildcard with a 9-8 record, so if 9 wins is the wildcard benchmark, the Panthers could have a shot with this schedule. Plus, the Buccaneers won the division last year going 9-8. Now the Falcons are much improved with the addition of Kirk Cousins and the departure of (fantasy killer) Arthur Smith, but I feel the Buccaneers and Saints either didn’t improve or got slightly worse. So, I believe the Panthers are fighting for the wildcard, not the division winner (but division winner is not out of sight if the changes do not mesh as well as we think they will in Atlanta).
Overall:
Now remember, this is a hot take for a reason - perhaps “scorching hot take” is a better title. Based on the reasons presented here, I truly believe there is a path for the Carolina Panthers to go from last in the league to a playoff team. There have been a handful of teams finishing dead last and then making the playoffs the following year since the merger in 1970, with recent examples being the 2021-2022 Jaguars, 2012-2013 Chiefs, and 2007-2008 Dolphins. With the right offseason adjustments and new schemes, it is entirely plausible for the Carolina Panthers to come out swinging like nobody could have predicted and for the first time since 2017, MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.
コメント